With everything that is going on, I thought it would be a good time to reach out and give you my thoughts on what is going on in our local market right now. Relatively, but not historically high interest rates, volatile stock and financial markets, limited inventory and yet oversupply at some price points – those are the conditions we currently face.
The volatile stock market is the newest and most challenging of these conditions and it is too new to fully evaluate. Corcoran has been taking surveys and digging into the numbers, as limited as they are.
Prior to the start of the tariff war, the real estate market in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens were good to strong. For the 1st Quarter of 2025, the average sale price in Manhattan was up 18% and sales in Brooklyn were up 7% year over year while the amount of listings was up 12%. Luxury contracts ($5MM +) in Manhattan were up an astonishing 44%. Average sale price in Queens was essential unchanged in Queens for the 1st Quarter. A range of results by borough, but none of them bad.
The tariffs began on April 2nd, after the close of the 1st Quarter.
There isn’t much information available for May as of yet, but there are a few things that we do know from our Corcoran surveys. Properties at the low end with buyers using maximum financing are the most affected and moving the slowest. Based on survey results, it looks like about 15 to 20% of buyers in that situation have paused their search.
People with unique, desirable properties haven’t seen any slow down. And the use of all-cash purchases has actually increased from where it had been; which is more than 50% at Corcoran. Some people are apparently taking money from the stock market and parking that money into real estate.
Of course the vast majority of sales lie somewhere between those two positions. For that large swath of transactions, we can fall back on the local market conditions, the biggest of which is supply and demand. Forest Hills and the surrounding areas are almost 100% developed so the supply is limited while the demand is still strong. What we have seen in the last 2-3 years in an increasing influx of Brooklynites and Manhattanites moving into the area due to the high prices in those areas.
There are some warning signs as there are some houses, particularly over $2 million, that have been on sale more 3 months or more. Yet at the same there many houses, mostly under $1.5 million, are selling in less than 60 days.
Putting all of this together, it appears that houses that are priced well are actually selling, and selling quickly. Houses that are priced aggressively (from seller’s point of view) are sitting and piling up “Days on Market”.
A couple of other things happened in the financial market in the last month or so including a sharp increase in the yield of the 10-year treasuries to more than 4.5%; which will put upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. At the same time, some banks were trying to lower their rates to stimulate demand.
If you are considering selling now, yes, you can do so but carefully consider the price you ask. If you shoot too high, you may end up with your listing sitting with no offers. If you are at or slightly below market, there are buyers out there who are likely to respond and make offers.
If you are looking to buy, I would recommend shopping around with multiple lenders to find the rate and/or a program that could be the best for you. I have multiple contacts at different firms that can help you. Beyond interest rates, there are some programs out there that provide cash assistance in diverse areas (as Forest Hills mostly is), or first-time buyers or some other program. You may also be able to take advantage of the flattening of housing prices that started several months ago.
I would be happy to discuss with you if you wish.
